- Fundstrat's Tom Lee knew the S & P 500 well this year as alarmists in the recession screamed wolf.
- Now, Lee expects profits in 2020 to grow at least double-digit.
- The last six months of the year are historically bullish on the stock market.
The alarmists of the recession may have chuckled when fellow bull Tom Lee predicted 3,125 for the S & P 500 by the end of the year. Lee deserves a well-deserved victory lap after correctly predicting that the stocks had not reached the peak and that, in fact, the well-rested bulls were warming up.
Now, Lee is turning to 2020 and has another bullish forecast. This time, Fundstrat's co-founder said his revenues would grow to double digits, according to a visit he made to CNBC. This might not seem like a big problem, but the profits have been in the doldrums after three consecutive quarters of declines. So for American companies, not only organizing a return, but also doing it in style may seem like a long fight, but these are especially the chances that Lee seems to thrive. He said:
"I think next year's earnings growth will actually be more than double digits."
Lee highlights sectors of the economy that do not really have a place to go, including the industrial sector, basic materials and energy, which he points out, "all have been blowing for over a year ".
It has not been easy for the stock market or the economy all year long, and it is understandable that the unfortunate would choose to believe in the prospect of half empty glass. But the latest economic data suggests that the US has entered an economy in Goldilocks – neither too hot nor too cold – with inflation and respite nowhere. And that gave investors something to applaud.
At the same time, as Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial points out, the stock market has a history on its side. In the last decade, the the second half of the year was bullish almost 100% of the time with average yields of 8.8%.
Despite all this optimism, asset managers argue that many investors are caught in fear.
Jenny Harrington, General Manager of Gilman Hill Asset Management, told CNBC that investors who were considering withdrawing money and buying shares or who were already in the market were worried that the stock could Have reached a peak. The other half of investors seem to follow Warren Buffett's advice: "be greedy when others are afraid."