- The repeated failure of Bitcoin to produce a large rebound from the key support indicates that the bullish sentiment has collapsed somewhat.
- The fact of not exceeding a bearish MA on the long-term chart suggests a larger decline.
- BTC is likely to fall to $ 8,800 in the near term and could bring this down to $ 8,500.
- A high-volume triangle break on a 4-hour chart would be bullish, although this seems unlikely at the time of publication.
Bitcoin is struggling to relaunch its blocked movement and may soon reach a support level of under $ 9,000.
According to Bitstamp data, the first cryptocurrency recovered an auction close to $ 7,500 on October 25 and rose to $ 10,350 the next day. The five-digit decomposition, however, was short-lived, as prices quickly fell below $ 10,000 on October 28 and have remained largely trapped in a narrow range of $ 9,600 to $ 9,000 since then.
The disadvantages have been hitherto limited by the 200-day average – a barometer of long-term market trends. A decline is generally reversed compared to key support levels such as the 200-day GA, especially if volumes are low, as has been the case recently.
Until now, however, cryptocurrency has failed to generate a significant rebound in support, despite positive seasonality.
Prices climbed more than $ 400 to $ 9,586 on Nov. 4 from the MA, to yield gains the next day. A similar similar rebound has been observed over the last 24 hours, with prices rising to just $ 9,450 to plunge to levels near $ 9,200.
These shallow rebounds indicate that the bullish sentiment generated by the sharp rise to USD 10,350 has weakened and that the market could test down demand by revisiting levels below USD 9,000.
At the time of writing, BTC is changing hands at $ 9,170 on Bitstamp, which represents a drop of 1.50% on a 24-hour basis.
The advantage of BTC was limited by the trend line connecting the low levels of June 26th and August 6th several times over the past few days. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency tested the MA 200 days five times in eight days.
Trading volumes have fallen sharply since the recent decline of $ 10,350. Low volume withdrawals are often reversed, but a decent rebound remains elusive.
Overall, the cryptocurrency seems doomed to the decline of the old support became resistant to $ 8,800.
The upper shadow of the monthly candle represents the rejection over the 5-month am at $ 9,265. A lack of maintenance above the decreasing averages usually results in a significant price decrease. Significant support is observed at the 10-month MA, up close to $ 8,000.
4 hour chart
The outsourcing triangle seen above seems likely to be broken down, as suggested by the daily and monthly indicators.
The 100- and 200-candle ascending AMs, currently at $ 8,928 and $ 8,558 respectively, could provide support if an exit at the exit from the zone is confirmed.
The bearish view would be invalidated if the triangle ends with a high-volume bullish escape. In this case, a new test of $ 10,000 could be seen.
Disclosure: The author does not hold any cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View